Round 3
We are now at the crunch stage of the group stage and in many of the games below we would want to see better prices before getting involved and so team news becomes crucial here.
Saturday 16th June
Poland v Czech Republic Kick off 19:45 BST
In this match we have a winner takes all scenario where the winner of this game guarantees themselves a place in the Quarter Finals. However a draw would probably be enough to see the Czech Republic through depending on how Greece does against Russia.
Although Poland offer no real value at their current price of 2.30 they have won all 3 of the last 3 head to heads in Poland.
However we would not look to get involved unless you can get Poland on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals @ 2.10 or better.
Despite there being 10 goals in the Czech Republic’s last 2 games 16 of Poland’s last 19 games have seen 2 goals or less.
This could well be a tight affair with so much to play for that Under 2.5 goals seems a reasonable play if you can get 1.92 or better.
Greece v Russia Kick off 19:45 BST
Despite dropping points against Poland, Russia still looked the better side and victory here would see them top the group and avoid meeting Germany in the next round.
The current price of 1.77 for Russia to win looks just a shade low and although they are rightly favourites and are undefeated in their last 8 encounters with Greece we would only advise backing Russia if you can get odds of 1.81 or better.
On the totals market we see an edge in probabilities by backing under 2.5 goals @ 1.91
Sunday 17th June
Portugal v Netherlands Kick off 19:45 BST
Pete based his tournament bet on Portugal on the fact that they have had the better of the Dutch in recent head to heads with a W6 D3 L1 record.
I still believe Portugal will get through the group here and although both of these sides have looked disjointed I believe the Portuguese are good enough to get a draw here and the draw looks a reasonable option at 3.50.
Edo leans towards Portugal +0 goals @ 2.08
If the Netherlands are to qualify they are going to have to score at least 2 goals and at some stage the game may become stretched.
The Over 2.5 goal price of 1.80 makes for no appeal however it could be worth backing if 25 minutes of the game have expired without a goal and the game looks open.
However although the market is suggesting a high scoring affair the edge on probabilities is certainly on the unders and it is certainly worth backing under 2.75 if you can get odds of 1.94 or better.
Denmark v Germany Kick off 19:45 BST
Germany have been impressive so far and they will not want to slip up here and risk finishing 2nd with the possibility of facing Russia in the Quarter final and they should progress here comfortably.
Germany offer no value at the moment and we would not look to get involved unless some significant team news pushed the Germany price out to 1.86 or better.
Once again goals look the order of the day for the Germans as 13 of their last 15 competitive games have seen 3 goals or more and the game could become open as the Danes will have to look for a victory. If the pre match Over 2.5 goals price hits 2.00 or better then we would look to get involved
