Round 2
Thursday 14th June
Italy v Croatia Kick off 17:00 BST
Historically Croatia has the better of Italy with a record that reads W3 D2 L1
Croatia also looked fairly impressive in beating the Republic of Ireland but as always the question has to be asked were Croatia good or Ireland poor?
We feel that Croatia got the best from a disoriented and somewhat nervous Ireland in their first match; while Italy in their opening match against Spain looked very effective and organised.
I like the look of Italy and feel if they can get through the group stages they could be a tough nut to crack and the generally available 12/1 to win the tournament looks of interest.
Edo suggests that Italy could go on and win the group from here
We lean towards Italy in the match -0.25 @ 2.02; but a fair price, in our opinion, should really be around 2.16.
Spain v Ireland Kick off 19:45 BST
There is no real value in backing Spain to win this match however this should be a comfortable night for the reigning champions.
Ireland are obviously a few levels below the quality and skill that Spain posses as a team; but the world champions seem a little off their passing game and their attacking men are lacking any real finesse. We believe if Ireland had not lost to Croatia the way they did the current price on Spain would not have come in this much from the opening line.
Pete states that In qualification Spain only defeated Liechtenstein by 3 or more goals and in the last World Cup Finals Spain did not win by 3 or more goals in any of the matches.
Ireland will be determined to leave the tournament with pride and dutching the Spain win by 1 or 2 goals pays 2.07 and looks a good option.
Edo states that experience had showed him that all matches are independent from one another, and if he must get involved then he will be backing Ireland +1.75 @ 1.926
Friday 15th June
Ukraine v France Kick off 17:00 BST
This promises to be a fascinating encounter and France offer no value whatsoever at their current price of 2.10
Ukraine were very opportunistic against Sweden and taking advantage when opportunity arises is what a winning team must do if they are to progress.
Looking at the current market prices on this match, we once again feel that the market overlooks the home advantage and Ukraine +0.25 @ 2.14 looks reasonable value.
The only problem with Ukraine they have faced a distinct lack of quality opponents recently. However they did draw 3-3 with Germany back in November.
Incidentally they also lost 1-4 to France in June last year.
We also have a small lean on over’s if the current price improves to at least over 2 @ 1.96.
Sweden v England Kick off 19:45 BST
England have never defeated Sweden in a competitive match and the concern for England here is they are going to have to be a little more adventurous if they are to qualify for the next round.
There is also a distinct possibility that England could go home from the competition undefeated.
It seems to us that every time England are involved in a match at his level the market tends to be more subjective than usual and as both sides really need to win this game from our quantitative approach and current market prices; we are leaning towards over 2.25 goals @ 2.00
