Well it has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride with my
baseball ratings this season and now we have reached the stage of the season
where last year more of the favourites won and the ratings went on a
particularly bad run as some teams began to fall out of play-off contention. Consequently
I am not using the same rating system until the playoffs start again.
As already mentioned
this baseball season has seen some highs and lows. Initially things started
well with the profits hitting +18.46 at the end of May before retracting to
+5.95 points in the middle of June this then surged to +17.78 at the end of June before again falling back
to +1.51 points in the middle of July before again recovering to +18.20 from
the beginning of this month.
So as can be seen from the above betting on baseball is
extremely streaky at best but when you do hit a good run the profits are there.
I always advise that people are well capitalised to deal with these losses but
even my confidence was tested over the last few couple of months.
It is goal in my newsletter to eventually be able to provide
my subscribers with 100 points profit a year covering the Baseball, Ice Hockey,
Basketball and ATP tennis.
So far over the past 12 months I have hit +71.93 points profits which is broken down as
follows:
Baseball +18.20
Points
Ice Hockey +33.13
Basketball +14.38
Italian football +6.22
Total +71.93
Thanks to input from some members I have also learned a hell
of a lot from when I initially started creating these ratings namely that in
order to have confidence in the process and system you are building consistency
is key.
For example this year in the baseball I have been comparing my ratings
to the starting prices offered by 3 leading bookmakers whereas before I was
comparing the rating to the Pinnacles price at the time of producing the
rating. I can now see how flawed my approach was.
I have also received some valuable input on the basketball
and my Italian Football strategy so hopefully we will go through a period of
continual improvement.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the Ice
hockey this season. I will be following the same approach as last season but
will also be reporting all value positive or negative of 2.50% or above to see
if there are any further angles which can be exploited.
I have also added ATP tennis into the mix now where I have a
member in Spain who provides me with his ratings here gain I am just initially
testing the ratings and there looks to be some good trends in backing any
selection that offers over 10% value.
The only thing I dont like about this approach is that the
system recommends backing some odds on favourites and this generally goes
against my principles. He has now provided me with around 6 weeks worth of
ratings and so I shall now look to see if there are any other trends that
develop.
Hopefully the ATP tennis will provide further ammunition and
my goal of providing 100 points profit in 12 months worth of selections will
not be far away.
I think anybody who creates or is thinking of creating their own rating system the key
is initially to have the discipline and be consistent with your compilation of your ratings and how you
compare them to what the bookmakers are quoting .
This is key going forward as
after you have enough data you can then follow with confidence any trends which
may appear. it has certainly proved fruitful in my case
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