Well I have had a busy time over the past week writing
the new Premier Betting book which deals with the fundamentals of football
betting.
This is the 1st in a series of short E-books
which deals with betting on the football markets. The next books will cover the
win markets, corners & bookings, Asian handicaps and then finally In-play
betting & trading. These books will be released over the coming year with
the fundamentals book hopefully coming out before the start of the domestic
season.
Tomorrow I am off to the Royal Statistical Society for a talk on Forecasting in Football
The speakers are Stuart Coles from SmartOdds who will be discussing Euros
2012: What can statistics tell us and John Goddard (Bangor University)who will
be giving a talk on In-play betting strategies for English football match
outcomes.
I will be interested to hear what Stuart has to say about
Euro 2012 because I find betting on International Football to be extremely
difficult as there is just simply not the solid data available like there is in
the domestic leagues and consequently I tend to avoid betting on the matches.
This is a big tournament for the bookmakers and it would not surprise me to see
them profit substantially through this tournament.
To my mind this is more about opinion and momentum and
with the tournament being so short luck plays a large part in the tournament
also. I discuss this in my 1st post for matchbook.com that can be found here
I am aware of John Goddards work having read a book
Statistical Thinking in Sports. Hopefully I will come away with some hints or
tips. These things are always worth going to even if you only come away with
one good idea.
I generally find the only problem with these studies is
that sometimes the conclusion they come to is stating the obvious and the
findings are not really relevant to the betting markets. Or you are betting at
such low odds that although they may offer some value they offer very little
appeal due to the odds on offer.
If there is anything of interest in the talk I will post
it on here over the next few days.
This months Trade On Sports newsletter is
out now and this month I am looking at the first two test matches between
England and the West Indies the latter stages of the Indian Premier League and
a simple football strategy that has seen us profit by over 95 points through
the season. I believe this strategy should hold its own throughout the Euros.
Going through my records I notice that I am holding an
awful lot of data on test match cricket and next
month for the newsletter I intend to put together a Test Match special
highlighting the scorecards price movements and comments on the best trading
opportunities. This will cover around 40 test matches over the past 2 years so
it is a good sample.
I am hoping that by putting these matches together in one
place various trends may appear and by having this data at hand should a similar
scenario ever unfold we should have the relevant information available to take
advantage should a promising situation arise.
I like trading test match cricket more than any other
form of cricket and my style is to get involved either at the start or end of
an innings the start or end of a day or when a price reaches a resistance
point. The great thing about test match cricket is it is blindingly obvious
when that resistance point is reached because the price does not move for an
hour or so.
Finally we have now released information on what will be happening
with the Premier Betting Silver & Gold services next season of which the
links can be found below.
